This product covers the Hawaiian islands
**LOWELL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS**
NEW INFORMATION
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* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been
upgraded to a Hurricane Warning for Kauai East, Kauai
Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, and Niihau
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kauai East, Kauai
Mountains, Kauai North, Kauai South, Kauai Southwest, and Niihau
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 450 miles southwest of Lihue or about 480 miles southwest
of Honolulu
- 16.5N 163.2W
- Storm Intensity 115 mph
- Movement North-northeast or 20 degrees at 10 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
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At 11 PM HST, the eye of major Hurricane Lowell was located about
450 miles south-southwest of Kauai. Lowell has maximum sustained winds
of 115 mph, and is moving NNE at 9 mph. Lowell is expected to
accelerate tonight through Tuesday while gradually weakening. The
current track of Lowell has shifted slightly farther east now putting
the closet approach of the eye of Lowell roughly 75 to 95 miles west
of Niihau Monday night into Tuesday.
Winds will gradually strengthen locally through Monday, reaching
hurricane strength (sustained 74 mph or higher) Monday evening on Kauai
and Niihau as the eastern side of Lowell's circulation passes just
west Niihau. Current track forecast and trends have Lowell shifting
farther east, closer to Niihau. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect
for Niihau and Kauai. With winds peaking Monday night, plan to have
your preparations for damaging winds complete by midday. The strongest
gusts over Kauai and Niihau are expected where winds are accelerated by
terrain.
A very large shield of deep tropical moisture surrounding Lowell is
spreading northward over the main Hawaiian islands from south to
north, increasing showers and bringing isolated thunderstorms. Squally
downpours could lead to flash flooding and/or mudslides, especially in
steep terrain. Rainbands could become persistent and anchored in some
areas, which would exacerbate the flash flood threat. The risk of
flash flooding and mudslides is greatest for Kauai and Niihau, but
also exists for all other islands due to the extent of the moisture
associated with Lowell. Over a foot of rain is possible over portions
of Kauai, mainly over the interior mountains.
Surf is expected to rapidly build through Monday along south and west
facing shores. A High Surf Warning is in effect for all islands for
south-facing shores, and also west-facing shores of the Big Island,
through Monday night. Dangerously large surf and coastal inundation are
expected along the immediate coast of exposed south and west facing
shores, particularly Niihau, Kauai and possibly Oahu. The highest surf
may reach 20 to 30 feet on Kauai and Niihau by Monday night before
diminishing on Tuesday. Extra large surf, on top of 1 to 3 feet of
storm surge and peak afternoon high tides, will generate major wave
run-up and coastal inundation along exposed low lying areas of south-
and west-facing shores, particularly for Niihau and Kauai, and possibly
for Oahu.
Monday afternoon, conditions will become favorable for fast-moving,
short-lived waterspouts and tornadoes in the rainbands associated with
Lowell, especially near Kauai and Niihau. This threat will continue
into Monday night, then diminish quickly Tuesday morning.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
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* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across Oahu.
Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the
Big Island.
* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
Elsewhere across the Hawaiian islands, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across Niihau and Kauai. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands from Oahu to the Big Island.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.
If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.
Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.
Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.
It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.
If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.
Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
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The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu HI around 5 AM HST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
