This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
**ISAIAS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING, FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY
MORNING**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Calhoun, Coffee,
Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Inland Franklin, Jackson,
Northern Liberty, and Southern Liberty
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Coastal Bay, Coastal Gulf, and South Walton
- A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Central Walton and North
Walton
- A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Coastal Dixie and Coastal
Taylor
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Calhoun, Coffee, Dale,
Geneva, Henry, Holmes, Houston, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin,
Inland Gulf, Jackson, Northern Liberty, Southern Liberty, and
Washington
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 680 miles southwest of Panama City or about 690 miles
southwest of Apalachicola
- 22.7N 92.9W
- Storm Intensity 65 mph
- Movement East-northeast or 65 degrees at 8 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COUNTIES...
At 5 PM ET, Tropical Storm Isaias was still located in the Bay of
Campeche with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and moving ENE at
8 mph. Isaias is forecast to turn northward in the next day or so and
accelerate in forward speed towards the central Gulf coast. Steady
strengthening is expected through much of the next couple of days,
although some weakening may be possible just before landfall. The wind
field is expected to expand considerably and may be lopsided towards
the east, leading to windier conditions for portions of our area.
There is still considerable uncertainty with both timing and track.
Conditions could begin to deteriorate across the Panhandle as early as
Friday morning.
Given the expected large size of Isaias, the wind threat may extend
well into the eastern portions of our area. An expected fast forward
speed may also lead to the wind threat extending further inland. Storm
surge will be possible along our whole coastline including the
Panhandle and Apalachee Bay. Inundation values of 5 to 7 feet above
ground level (AGL) are possible across the coastal Panhandle to Indian
Pass, 4 to 6 feet AGL from Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, and
2 to 4 feet AGL from the Steinhatchee River to Yankeetown.
Soggy conditions across the region from recent rainfall will make the
area more sensitive to flooding from additional heavy rainfall from
Isaias. Forecast rainfall totals of 3 to 7 inches is expected across
much of the area, with isolated amounts near 10 inches possible. If
realized, these values would likely cause at least isolated flash
flooding and some river flooding. It is too soon to determine exact
tornado impacts, but there is an elevated chance for tornadoes Friday
into Saturday.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Florida Panhandle and portions of SE
Alabama. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to
significant impacts across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and
the Florida Big Bend.
* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts in this
area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.
Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Big Bend and Southeast Alabama.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, and
southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated.
* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible extensive impacts
across coastal Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the
Florida Panhandle. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the Gulf of America or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to
safe shelter on higher ground.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.
Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.
Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.
If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
