Weather Alerts
Tropical Storm Warning issued October 7 at 5:11PM EDT by NWS Key West FL
* WHAT...Southeast to south winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40
kt and seas 7 to 12 ft.
* WHERE...Straits of Florida, Hawk Channel, Florida Bay and the
nearshore Gulf waters.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from Wednesday
morning until early Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...A Tropical Storm Warning means that sustained winds
of 34 to 63 knots associated with a tropical storm are
expected within 36 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Statement issued October 7 at 5:51PM EDT by NWS Key West FL
HLSKEY
This product covers the Florida Keys
**TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Monroe Lower Keys, Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe
Upper Keys
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys,
Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe Upper Keys
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 600 miles west-southwest of Key West FL
- 21.8N 90.8W
- Storm Intensity 180 mph
- Movement East or 90 degrees at 10 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
As of 5 PM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton was located in the
southern Gulf of Mexico near the northwestern tip of the Yucatan,
about 600 miles west- southwest of Key West, with maximum sustained
winds near 180 mph. Milton is moving toward the east near 10 mph. This
general motion is expected through tonight followed by a turn toward
the east- northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday.
Thundery squalls with local wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph will be
possible throughout the Florida Keys from Tuesday evening through
Thursday morning. Additionally, there is a low potential for a few
tornadoes.
The is a one-in-two chance for sustained tropical storm force winds
from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning as Milton makes its
closest approach to the Keys, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in
effect for all of the Florida Keys.
Storm surge saltwater flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level, or
mean higher high water, will be possible on the Gulf and Bay side of
the Florida Keys from Wednesday morning through Thursday.
Additionally, Atlantic facing shorelines will be susceptible to
crashing waves and overwash. A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect
for all of the Florida Keys. The threat for coastal flooding has
remained constant.
Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 7 inches are likely through
Thursday. A significant portion of this rainfall will occur in advance
of Milton's closest approach to the Keys. Flooding of low elevation
streets and poor drainage areas is likely.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials. Refer to monroecountyem.com for
the latest information.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
in a low-lying or poor drainage area, plan to move to safe shelter on
higher ground.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
by Tuesday evening. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can
cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around midnight, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
Coastal Flood Warning issued October 7 at 5:22PM EDT until October 10 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Key West FL
* WHAT...Minor saltwater flooding will continue across the Florida
Keys tonight through Tuesday night, especially around the times
of high tide. Major saltwater flooding of 1 to 3 feet above
ground level on the Gulf and Bayside will be possible Wednesday
morning through Thursday afternoon as Hurricane Milton moves
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the west coast of
Florida. Atlantic-facing shorelines will be susceptible to
crashing waves and overwash, leading to saltwater flooding in
the adjacent neighborhoods. The threat for major saltwater
flooding has remained mostly the same.
* WHERE...Florida Keys.
* WHEN...Through Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...For the minor saltwater flooding threat, boaters can
expect less clearance under fixed bridges. Motorists should
remember that persistent puddles around the times of high tide
are almost certain to contain a mix of saltwater. For the major
saltwater flooding threat, numerous roads may be closed. Low
lying property including ground story homes, downstairs
enclosures, businesses, and some critical infrastructure will be
inundated. Some shoreline erosion will occur.
Tropical Storm Warning issued October 7 at 5:04PM EDT by NWS Key West FL
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Islamorada
- Key Largo
- Ocean Reef
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until Thursday
afternoon
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
above ground.
- PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
become unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge
water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge
water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- http://ready.gov/
- Local weather conditions and forecasts: NOAA/Florida Keys National Weather Service
- http://www.weather.gov/key/
Tropical Cyclone Statement issued October 7 at 11:50AM EDT by NWS Key West FL
HLSKEY
This product covers the Florida Keys
**TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys,
Monroe Middle Keys, and Monroe Upper Keys
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 660 miles west-southwest of Key West FL or about 710
miles west-southwest of Marathon FL
- 21.7N 91.7W
- Storm Intensity 155 mph
- Movement East-southeast or 110 degrees at 9 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
As of 11 AM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Milton was located in the
southern Gulf of Mexico, about 660 miles west-southwest of Key West,
with maximum sustained winds near 155 mph. Milton is moving toward the
east- southeast near 9 mph. An eastward to east- southeastward motion
is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and
northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is
forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and
Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.
Thundery squalls with local wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph will be
possible throughout the Florida Keys from Tuesday evening through
Thursday morning. Additionally, there is a low potential for a few
tornadoes. There is the also the potential for sustained tropical storm
force winds from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning as Milton
makes its closest approach to the Keys, and a Tropical Storm Watch
remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys.
Storm surge saltwater flooding of 1 to 3 feet above ground level, or
mean higher high water, will be possible on the Gulf and Bay side of
the Florida Keys from Wednesday morning through Thursday.
Additionally, Atlantic facing shorelines will be susceptible to
crashing waves and overwash. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect
for all of the Florida Keys.
Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up
to 15 inches, are likely through Thursday morning. A significant
portion of this rainfall will occur well in advance of Milton's closest
approach to the Keys. Flooding of low elevation streets and poor
drainage areas is likely.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Refer to monroecountyem.com for the latest information.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
in a low-lying or poor drainage area, plan to move to safe shelter on
higher ground.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
by Tuesday. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause
certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.