Weather Alerts
Tropical Storm Warning issued November 6 at 10:02AM EST by NWS Key West FL
* WHAT...East to southeast winds near 25 knots, becoming
southeast and increasing to 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 55
knots. Seas will build to a range from 12 to 19 feet across
the Straits of Florida and the Gulf waters surrounding the Dry
Tortugas.
* WHERE...Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel west of Craig Key,
the Gulf and Bayside, and the Gulf waters including the Dry
Tortugas.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds expected from this evening
until Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...A Tropical Storm Warning means that sustained winds
of 34 to 63 knots associated with a tropical storm are
expected within 36 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Statement issued November 6 at 10:18AM EST by NWS Key West FL
HLSKEY
This product covers the Florida Keys
**TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH FROM THE CUBAN COAST**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
Monroe Middle Keys
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 220 miles south of Key West FL
- 21.4N 81.9W
- Storm Intensity 110 mph
- Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 14 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
At 1000 AM EST, the center of Hurricane Rafael was located in the
Caribbean Sea about 130 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. Rafael
will move northwestward and strengthen steadily for the next several
hours. Rafael is expected to make landfall near western Cuba late this
afternoon as a major hurricane, followed by a turn to the west-
northwest tonight and Thursday over the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. There is high confidence in the forecast track, although there
remains some uncertainty in the exact structure and size of the storm
due to interactions with land.
Tropical storm force winds will most likely arrive this evening
including sustained winds 30 to 35 mph and occasional gusts 40 to 45
mph, especially for areas west of the Channel 5 Bridge. There is a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms today and tonight,
including the potential for a few tornadoes. The most potent thundery
squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.
Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could
reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water tonight, or about a
foot higher than recent high tides.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many medium to large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped
or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated
roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Atlantic side communities of the Florida Keys. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Middle and Upper Keys.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials. Refer to monroecountyem.com for
the latest information.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer
shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 4 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
Tropical Storm Warning issued November 6 at 10:02AM EST by NWS Key West FL
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Key West
- Sugarloaf Key
- Big Pine Key
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: through Thursday morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
above ground.
- PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
become unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge
water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge
water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional around 1 inch
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
several tornadoes with a few possibly intense having larger
damage paths.
- PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats are
urged to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather
arrives.
- ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- http://ready.gov/
- Local weather conditions and forecasts: NOAA/Florida Keys
National Weather Service
- http://www.weather.gov/key/
Coastal Flood Statement issued November 6 at 5:08AM EST until November 7 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Key West FL
* WHAT...Minor saltwater flooding associated with late season King
Tides will continue across the Florida Keys. As Hurricane Rafael
makes its closest approach tonight, peak water levels may reach
2 feet above mean higher high water for Atlantic side
communities, or about 1 foot higher than recent high tides. A
Coastal Flood Advisory may be required later today.
* WHERE...Florida Keys.
* WHEN...Through Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and
lots is likely. Some storm drains will overflow, and some
seawalls and docks will be overtopped. Boaters can expect less
clearance under fixed bridges. Motorists should remember that
persistent puddles around the times of high tide are almost
certain to contain a mix of saltwater.
Tropical Cyclone Statement issued November 6 at 4:49AM EST by NWS Key West FL
HLSKEY
This product covers the Florida Keys
**TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
Monroe Middle Keys
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 270 miles south of Key West FL or about 280 miles south
of Marathon FL
- 20.6N 81.3W
- Storm Intensity 90 mph
- Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 14 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
At 400 AM EST, the center of Hurricane Rafael was located in the
Caribbean Sea about 195 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. Rafael
is moving toward the northwest at 14 mph. This northwestward motion is
expected to continue for next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to
the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, the
storm is expected to move over western Cuba today, and move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. There is high confidence in a
forecast track across west-central Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico, passing to the southwest and west of the Florida Keys. Due to
some uncertainty in the exact structure and track of the storm, there
remains a bit uncertainty in the level of degree of impacts for the
island chain.
The potential for sustained tropical storm force winds are now just
below one in five at Key West, and just below one in ten at Marathon
and Layton. Tropical storm force winds will most likely arrive
this evening. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe
thunderstorms today and tonight, including the potential for a few
tornadoes. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of
localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph.
Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could
reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water today and tonight, or
about a foot higher than recent high tides.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
Lower and Middle Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the
Middle and Upper Keys.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.
If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer
shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 11 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.