Weather Alerts
Tornado Watch issued October 9 at 1:03PM EDT until October 9 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 690 TO
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
Hurricane Warning issued October 9 at 8:07AM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
* WHAT...Northeast winds 40 to 60 knots with gusts up to 85
knots and seas 15 to 20 feet.
* WHERE...Portions of Atlantic coastal waters.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from Wednesday
evening until Thursday evening. Hurricane force winds possible
from early Thursday morning until Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Hurricane force winds and hazardous seas will
capsize or damage vessels and severely reduce visibility.
Tropical Cyclone Statement issued October 9 at 11:40AM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
HLSMLB
This product covers East Central Florida
**A RARE AND HISTORIC EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA**
**MILTON IS FORECAST TO BRING DEVASTATING AND LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS
FROM HURRICANE WINDS AND HIGH TO EXTREME FLOODING RAINFALL**
**TORNADO RISK INCREASING TODAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
Coastal Volusia, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern
Brevard Barrier Islands
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Coastal Indian River,
Coastal Saint Lucie, Inland Indian River, Inland Northern
Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland
Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard,
Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
Southern Lake
- A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Coastal Martin and Inland Martin
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 290 miles southwest of Cape Canaveral FL
- 25.8N 84.3W
- Storm Intensity 145 mph
- Movement Northeast or 35 degrees at 17 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
As of 11 AM, Major Hurricane Milton was located in the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico about 190 miles southwest of Tampa, or about 275 miles
southwest of Melbourne, Florida. Milton remains a dangerous and
powerful hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, and was
moving northeast at 17 mph directly toward central Florida.
Milton is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane along the
west central Florida coast around midnight, and then push inland to
cross through east central Florida while maintaining hurricane
strength. It will then exit offshore on Thursday. Milton will bring
the threat of damaging hurricane winds and gusts, as well as
significant flood and flash flood waters. The threat to life is high!
This is particularly true in vicinity of the Interstate 4 corridor,
and along and to the north of Milton's track.
People and interests within east central Florida are strongly advised
to rush to completion all preparations for a potentially rare and
historic event with life-threatening ramifications. Final
preparations should be committed to protecting life! Do not trust in
luck!
If you are vulnerable to high winds and flood waters, the time to move
to safe shelter is now! Time is growing short, and conditions will
continue to steadily deteriorate today! Conditions will then become
more dangerous tonight and Thursday as the local impact phase gets
more fully underway. People should not go through this storm alone,
nor should they risk their life or the lives of others.
Hurricane Warnings remain in effect for all of east central Florida,
except Martin county, where a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm
Warning are in effect. Actions should be taken to protect against
damaging hurricane winds and gusts. Large areas will likely experience
significant power outages and communications failures.
A Flood Watch is in effect for all east central Florida counties.
Rainfall between 6 to 12 inches is forecast, with a swath of 12 to
15 inches possible in vicinity of the I-4 corridor. Localized peak
amounts of 18 inches are also possible. Water rescues may be needed in
the hardest hit locations. Farther south, the forecast calls for 4 to
6 inches of rain.
Flooding rainfall will also cause rapid rises on area creeks and
streams. The Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to rise quickly to
Major Flood Stage by Thursday morning with a historical crest near
Record Flood. Additional locations upstream on the Saint Johns are
also likely to experience rises to at least Minor or Moderate flood
stage through Saturday, and possibly reaching major flood levels at
DeLand and Geneva by Sunday.
A Tornado Watch is also in effect for parts of the area including
Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Okeechobee, and Osceola counties.
The Tornado Watch will likely be expanded northward later today.
Listen for any Tornado Warnings while hurricane protective actions are
being finalized. A few tornadoes could be strong producing significant
damage!
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for all Brevard Barrier Islands and
Coastal Volusia County where coastal flood waters of 3 to 5 feet are
possible. Significant beach and dune erosion is likely. Heights up to
3 feet will be possible along the Treasure Coast.
Always heed the advice of local officials!
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts along and south of the I-4 corridor, to Okeechobee and Saint
Lucie counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across the remainder of east-central Florida.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across areas north of a Kissimmee to Titusville
line. Potential impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. In mountain
areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while increasing
susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
limited to extensive impacts across the remainder of east central
Florida.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a particularly dangerous tornado event having
possible extensive impacts across much of east central Florida.
Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of numerous tornadoes can greatly hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Many places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of
immense destruction, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roof and wall failures of sturdy
buildings with some being leveled, structures upon weak
foundations blown away, mobile homes obliterated, large trees
twisted and snapped with forested trees uprooted, vehicles
lifted off the ground and thrown, and small boats destroyed.
Large and deadly projectiles can add to the toll.
* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the immediate Volusia and Brevard County coastlines.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, or near an already swollen river, urgently
plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.
Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for
weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away
from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital
contact information with others.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
Storm Surge Warning issued October 9 at 11:20AM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early this evening
until Thursday evening
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
to 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 3-5 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: through Friday afternoon
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Flood preparations and ordered evacuations should
be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from
storm surge flooding.
- ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture
outside.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated
by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the
coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong
and numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 10-15 inches, with
locally higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for extreme
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
extreme flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are likely.
- PREPARE: Urgently consider protective actions from extreme
and widespread rainfall flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. In
mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
with some weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is very favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for many
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for many
tornadoes with some possibly intense having larger damage
paths.
- PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats are
urged to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather
arrives.
- ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- The occurrence of numerous tornadoes can greatly hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Many places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of immense destruction, power loss, and communications
failures.
- Locations could realize roof and wall failures of sturdy
buildings with some being leveled, structures upon weak
foundations blown away, mobile homes obliterated, large
trees twisted and snapped with forested trees uprooted,
vehicles lifted off the ground and thrown, and small boats
destroyed. Large and deadly projectiles can add to the toll.
Hurricane Warning issued October 9 at 11:20AM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 45-55 mph with gusts to 75 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early this evening
until Thursday evening
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
to 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
2 hurricane force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 3-5 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: through Friday afternoon
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Shelter against life-threatening storm surge of
greater than 3 feet above ground.
- PREPARE: Flood preparations and ordered evacuations should
be complete. Evacuees should be in shelters well away from
storm surge flooding.
- ACT: Remain sheltered in a safe location. Do not venture
outside.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated
by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the
coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
vulnerable low spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong
and numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
in unprotected anchorages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 10-15 inches, with
locally higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for extreme
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
extreme flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are likely.
- PREPARE: Urgently consider protective actions from extreme
and widespread rainfall flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. In
mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
with some weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is very favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for many
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has increased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for many
tornadoes with some possibly intense having larger damage
paths.
- PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats are
urged to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather
arrives.
- ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- The occurrence of numerous tornadoes can greatly hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Many places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of immense destruction, power loss, and communications
failures.
- Locations could realize roof and wall failures of sturdy
buildings with some being leveled, structures upon weak
foundations blown away, mobile homes obliterated, large
trees twisted and snapped with forested trees uprooted,
vehicles lifted off the ground and thrown, and small boats
destroyed. Large and deadly projectiles can add to the toll.
Rip Current Statement issued October 9 at 2:50AM EDT until October 10 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
* WHAT...Dangerous rip currents and rough surf.
* WHERE...Coastal Volusia, Coastal Indian River, Coastal Saint
Lucie, Coastal Martin, Mainland Northern Brevard, Northern
Brevard Barrier Islands, Mainland Southern Brevard and
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands Counties.
* WHEN...Through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away
from shore into deeper water.
Flood Watch issued October 8 at 2:50PM EDT until October 10 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of east central Florida, including the following
areas, Coastal Indian River, Coastal Martin, Coastal Saint Lucie,
Coastal Volusia, Inland Indian River, Inland Martin, Inland
Northern Brevard, Inland Saint Lucie, Inland Southern Brevard,
Inland Volusia, Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern
Brevard, Northern Brevard Barrier Islands, Northern Lake,
Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Southern Brevard Barrier
Islands and Southern Lake.
* WHEN...Through Thursday evening.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
in poor drainage and urban areas. Extensive street flooding and
flooding of creeks and rivers are possible.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Localized flooding will still be possible through tonight,
especially along the coast from persistent bands of heavier
showers and storms. Then, as Hurricane Milton approaches the
west coast of Florida into Wednesday and crosses central
Florida Wednesday night and into Thursday, the threat for
widespread heavy rainfall, likely leading to flash flooding
and considerable river flooding will increase significantly.
The greatest threat for flooding will be across northern
portions of east central Florida, including the urban I-4
corridor and St. Johns River near to north of where the
center of Milton is forecast to track. Rainfall totals up to
6 to 12 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts up to
15 inches possible from near Orlando to Melbourne and points
northward, with 3 to 6 inches to the south of that line
including the Treasure Coast.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood