High Tide Flooding Outlook for October 2024
Posted
Last Updated
By US Harbors
Monthly High Tide Flooding Outlook, October 2024
NOAA is reporting higher tides on and around the new moon and full moon dates (known as spring tides), which will occur on Oct 2nd and 17th, respectively. Higher than normal high tides and lower than normal low tides will occur around the perigean spring tide, when the Moon is full and closest to Earth. In addition, the mean sea level is generally higher in the early fall months due to warmer, expanding ocean water and changes in weather patterns. Make sure to print out the tide chart for your favorite harbor so that you can monitor exactly when the water level will be highest (and lowest) in your area.
- Boaters in the Northeast will want to pay particular attention on October 18th and 19th, when flooding is likely in major harbors such as Portland, Boston, and Providence, RI.
- Similarly, several harbors in the Southeast are likely to see flooding in the middle of October, including Charleston, Fernandina Beach, FL, and Port Canaveral, FL.
- Hawaii, which was not predicted to have any days where flooding was likely last month, is expecting flooding on the Big Island from October 18-20.
About these Predictions: “These flooding likelihoods are derived from a probabilistic model that incorporates tide predictions, sea level rise trends, and seasonal changes in coastal sea level to predict the potential that a higher than normal high tide may exceed established National Ocean Service flood thresholds. During these periods, high tide flooding may occur in flood-prone areas.” NOAA
Northeast: Possible Flood Days
- Bar Harbor, ME — POSSIBLE Oct 17,20; LIKELY flooding Oct 18,19
- Portland, ME — POSSIBLE Oct 17,20; LIKELY flooding Oct 18,19
- Boston, MA — POSSIBLE Oct 16,17,20,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 18,19
- Providence, RI — POSSIBLE Oct 16,17,19,20; LIKELY flooding Oct 18,19
- Newport, RI — POSSIBLE Oct 16-20
- Bridgeport, CT — POSSIBLE Oct 15-20
Mid-Atlantic: Possible Flood Days
- Kings Point, NY — POSSIBLE Oct 15,16, 20,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 17-19
- The Battery, NY — POSSIBLE Oct 15-21
- Bergen Point West Reach, NY — POSSIBLE Oct 15-21
- Sandy Hook, NJ — POSSIBLE Oct 15,16,17,19,20,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 18
- Atlantic City, NJ — POSSIBLE Oct 15-21
- Cape May, NJ — POSSIBLE Oct 14-22
- Lewes, DE — POSSIBLE Oct 14-22
- Lewisetta, VA — POSSIBLE Oct 1-7; Oct 12-22
- Windmill Point, VA — POSSIBLE Oct 1-8; Oct 13-22
- Wachapreague, VA — POSSIBLE Oct 4; Oct 14-22
- Kiptopeke, VA — POSSIBLE Oct 15-21
- Sewells Point, VA — POSSIBLE Oct 1-8; Oct 12-23; Oct 30,31
Southeast: Possible Flood Days
- Duck, NC — POSSIBLE Oct 15-22
- Beaufort, Duke Marine Lab, NC — POSSIBLE Oct 16-21
- Springmaid Pier, SC — POSSIBLE Oct 16,17,20,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 18,19
- Charleston, SC — POSSIBLE Oct 15,16,17,20,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 18,19
- Fort Pulaski, GA — POSSIBLE Oct 15,16,20,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 17-19
- Fernandina Beach, FL — POSSIBLE Oct 16,17,20,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 18,19
- Mayport, FL — POSSIBLE Oct 16,17,19,20,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 18
- Port Canaveral, FL — POSSIBLE Oct 15,16,20,21,22; LIKELY flooding Oct 17-19
- Virginia Key, FL — POSSIBLE Oct 16-20
Gulf Coast: Possible Flood Days
- Cedar Key, FL — POSSIBLE Oct 16-22
- Pensacola, FL — POSSIBLE Oct 19-22
- Dauphin Island, AL — POSSIBLE Oct 9-11 & Oct 18-23
- Bay Saint Louis, MS — POSSIBLE Oct 5-12 & Oct 18-24
- Galveston, Pier 21, TX — POSSIBLE Oct 1-31
West Coast: Likely & Possible Flood Days
- San Diego, CA — POSSIBLE Nov 18
- North Spit, CA — POSSIBLE Oct 17-20
- Port Orford, OR — POSSIBLE Oct 19
- Charleston, OR — POSSIBLE Oct 18,19
- South Beach, OR — POSSIBLE Oct 18-20
- Toke Point, WA — POSSIBLE Oct 17-20
Hawaii: Likely & Possible Flood Days
Kauai:
- Nawiliwili, HI — POSSIBLE Oct 18-20
Oahu:
- Honolulu, HI — POSSIBLE Oct 18-20
- Mokuoloe, HI — POSSIBLE Oct 18-20
Maui:
-
Kahului, HI — POSSIBLE Oct 18-2
Hawaii, Big Island:
- Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI — POSSIBLE Oct 17,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 18-20
- Kawaihae, HI — POSSIBLE Oct 17,21; LIKELY flooding Oct 18-20
Regional Discussion
Northeast
Some locations along the Northeast coast will have their highest tides of the year. Some stations along the Northeast coast are predicted to exceed the high tide flooding threshold based on tides alone. Low-lying areas may flood; however, high tides alone will likely not cause a significant impact on the coast in most areas unless accompanied by a storm or strong winds. Lower than-normal low tides will also occur.
Mid-Atlantic
Some locations along the Mid-Atlantic coast will have their highest tides of the year. Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low-lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than-normal low tides will also occur.
Southeast
Some locations along the Southeast coast will have their highest tides of the year. Some stations along the Southeast coast are predicted to exceed the high tide flooding threshold based on tides alone. Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
Gulf Coast
In many locations of the Gulf Coast, the tidal range is relatively small compared to other regions of the U.S. so they will not be as significantly impacted by a perigean spring tide.
Pacific Islands
Some locations in the Pacific Islands will have their highest tides of the year. Some stations in the Pacific Islands are predicted to exceed the high tide flooding threshold based on tides alone. Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
If you see high tide flooding near you, please send us your photos and include the date, time, and location. We work with your local National Weather Service office to help them improve their storm surge forecasts, and your documentation helps!
