Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center announced a 30% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming central Pacific Hurricane Season. The 2025 outlook also indicates a 50% chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 20% chance that it will be above-normal.
In terms of storm numbers, the forecast calls for 1-4 tropical cyclones across the central Pacific, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
The outlook is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii.
The central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.
“Even though this season is predicted to be less active, now is the time for residents and businesses to prepare for hurricane season,” said Chris Brenchley, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center director.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center uses satellites, land-and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions, all operated by NOAA and its partners, to monitor tropical cyclone activity. These observations are then fed into a variety of NOAA computer models that run on state-of-the-art supercomputers. This information is then used by forecasters to develop storm track and intensity forecasts and provide impact-based decision support services to emergency managers at the county, state and federal levels.
Forecast and communication improvements this season
- NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and National Hurricane Center are extending forecasts a day earlier on the sustained hurricane-force wind field (74 miles per hour) from 48 to 72 hours
read more at noaa.gov.
