Spring Outlook: Drought Forecasted to Expand in U.S. West, Parts of Plains

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By noaa.gov, noaa.gov.

Drought conditions are forecast to worsen or develop for many areas in the West and south-central Plains, according to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today for April through June. Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service also predict above-normal temperatures for the majority of the U.S.

“Factors influencing NOAA’s Spring Outlook include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), low snowpack in the West and soil moisture content throughout the lower 48 states,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This spring will also feature a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña.”

This map depicts where drought persistence, development or improvement is the most likely outcome based on short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts from March 19 through June 30, 2026. (Image credit: NOAA)
This map depicts where drought persistence, development or improvement is the most likely outcome based on short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts from March 19 through June 30, 2026. (Image credit: NOAA)
 As of mid-March, moderate to exceptional drought conditions exist across 55% of the continental United States.

“Drought conditions worsened or developed for much of the Great Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast U.S. due to warmer and drier than normal conditions this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Drought is likely to persist across much of the West while developing in parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, central Rockies and Southwest. Dry conditions are expected to improve for some areas in the Midwest and Atlantic seaboard.”

Temperature and precipitation outlooks

The temperature outlook for April through June shows above-normal temperatures are favored across the majority of the western U.S. eastward to include much of the Plains, the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic.

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A carpet of colorful (mostly yellow and orange) wildflowers in California with red-toned mountains in the distance. Wildflowers bloom at Carrizo Plain National Monument on March 12, 2026, in Santa Margarita, California. California’s deserts and hills are seeing a colorful wildflower bloom this spring after a wet winter. (Image credit: Getty Images)
A carpet of colorful (mostly yellow and orange) wildflowers in California with red-toned mountains in the distance. Wildflowers bloom at Carrizo Plain National Monument on March 12, 2026, in Santa Margarita, California. California’s deserts and hills are seeing a colorful wildflower bloom this spring after a wet winter. (Image credit: Getty Images)