- Snipe Keys, Middle Narrows, FL
- Saddlebunch Keys, Channel No. 3, FL
- Perky, Upper Sugarloaf Sound, FL
- Waltz Key, Waltz Key Basin, FL
- Saddlebunch Keys, Channel No. 4, FL
- Saddlebunch Keys, Channel No. 5, FL
- North Harris Channel, Upper Sugarloaf Sound, FL
- Johnston Key, Turkey Basin, FL
- Saddlebunch Keys, Similar Sound, FL
- Sugarloaf Key, Bow Channel, FL
Weather Alerts
Marine Weather Statement issued November 5 at 12:51AM EST by NWS Key West FL
Through 300 am, several lines of gusty showers and squalls will
continue moving quickly westward at 25 to 30 knots across Florida
Bay, the Gulf side waters, Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida.
Any of these showers and squalls may produce peak wind gusts of 30 to
40 knots, and peak gusts of 35 to 40 knots have already been
reported during at the Weatherflow stations at Carysfort Reef Light
and Alligator Reef Light. Boaters should seek safe harbor as quickly,
and as safely as possible. When downpours reduce visibility, slow
down.
Small Craft Advisory issued November 4 at 11:45PM EST until November 5 at 5:00AM EST by NWS Key West FL
* WHAT...For the Tropical Storm Watch, east winds 25 to 35 knots
with gusts up to 55 knots and seas 12 to 16 feet. For the
Small Craft Advisory, east winds 20 to 25 knots, increasing to
25 to 30 knots, and seas 7 to 10 feet.
* WHERE...Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel west of Craig Key,
the Gulf and Bayside, and the Gulf waters including the Dry
Tortugas.
* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, In Effect. For the
Tropical Storm Watch, Tropical Storm force winds possible from
Wednesday morning until Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when sustained
winds of 34 to 63 knots associated with a tropical storm are
possible within 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch issued November 4 at 11:45PM EST by NWS Key West FL
* WHAT...For the Tropical Storm Watch, east winds 25 to 35 knots
with gusts up to 55 knots and seas 12 to 16 feet. For the
Small Craft Advisory, east winds 20 to 25 knots, increasing to
25 to 30 knots, and seas 7 to 10 feet.
* WHERE...Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel west of Craig Key,
the Gulf and Bayside, and the Gulf waters including the Dry
Tortugas.
* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, In Effect. For the
Tropical Storm Watch, Tropical Storm force winds possible from
Wednesday morning until Thursday morning.
* IMPACTS...A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when sustained
winds of 34 to 63 knots associated with a tropical storm are
possible within 48 hours.
Tropical Cyclone Statement issued November 4 at 10:43PM EST by NWS Key West FL
HLSKEY
This product covers the Florida Keys
**TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
Monroe Middle Keys
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 640 miles south-southeast of Key West FL or about 630
miles south-southeast of Marathon FL
- 16.3N 77.2W
- Storm Intensity 45 mph
- Movement North-northwest or 335 degrees at 12 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
At 1000 PM EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located in the
Caribbean Sea about 195 miles south-southwest of Jamaica. Rafael is
moving toward the north-northwest at 12 mph. A northwestward motion is
expected with a faster speed overnight and is forecast to continue for
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move near Jamaica Tuesday morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands
as a hurricane Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. There is
moderate confidence in a forecast track across western Cuba into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, passing to the southwest and west of the
Florida Keys. Due to uncertainty in the exact structure of the storm,
there remains some uncertainty in the level of potential impacts for
the island chain.
The potential for sustained tropical storm force winds has increased
from the previous advisory, with chances now seven in ten at Key West,
and around one in two at Marathon and Layton. Tropical storm force
winds will most likely arrive around midday Wednesday. There is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday night, including the potential for a few tornadoes. The most
potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50
to 60 mph.
Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could
reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water Wednesday through
Wednesday evening, or about a foot higher than recent high tides.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Lower and Middle Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the
Lower Keys. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile homes
pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Refer to monroecountyem.com for the latest information.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, plan to move to safe
shelter.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 5 AM EST, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
Tropical Storm Watch issued November 4 at 10:08PM EST by NWS Key West FL
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Key West
- Sugarloaf Key
- Big Pine Key
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for up to 2 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: early Wednesday morning until Thursday
morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
above ground.
- PREPARE: Complete preparations for storm surge flooding,
especially in low-lying vulnerable areas, before conditions
become unsafe.
- ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
your area.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge
water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge
water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1-3 inches, with locally higher
amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops
and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over,
moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from
moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Family emergency plans: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- http://ready.gov/
- Local weather conditions and forecasts: NOAA/Florida Keys National Weather Service
- http://www.weather.gov/key/