Weather Alerts
Tropical Cyclone Statement issued October 7 at 5:21PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
HLSTAE
This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
**MILTON NOW A MAJOR CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson,
Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor,
and Lafayette
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Inland Jefferson and
Madison
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Dixie,
Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal
Wakulla, Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, and Lafayette
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Jefferson and
Madison
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 650 miles southwest of Apalachicola or about 720 miles
southwest of Tallahassee
- 21.8N 90.8W
- Storm Intensity 180 mph
- Movement East or 90 degrees at 10 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
At 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Milton was a major category 5 hurricane in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and was moving due east as it parallels
the northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. It reached Category
5 status around 12 pm noon EDT today after a period of rapid
intensification that began Sunday evening accelerated this morning.
Milton is still forecast to make landfall along the Florida west coast
later on Wednesday or into early Thursday as a major hurricane. While
the wind speeds at landfall are forecast at a category 3, a
substantial increase in the size of Milton will keep gusty winds and a
rainfall threat in place for the southeastern Florida Big Bend.
While Milton is currently a small hurricane by size, the wind field is
forecast to grow larger as it approaches Florida and this will bring
an increase in the surge concerns to the west coast of Florida,
depsite the decrease in winds. Additionally, it will begin to interact
with a cold front moving southeast over the Florida Panhandle. This
expansion in the wind field will help to increase winds on the
northwest side of the circulation. Thus tropical storm conditions are
likely across the Apalachee Bay coastline, and into the southeast
portions of the Florida Big Bend in and and east of Jefferson County,
Florida. Note, while gusty winds may not reach tropical storm strength
across much of the area, but they could still hamper recovery efforts
from Helene and cause additional damage to weakened trees or
structures.
In addition to the wind threat, heavy rainfall is likely across the
southeast Big Bend. As Milton interacts with the cold front, a band of
heavy rain may materialize that could produce 3 to 5 inches of rain,
with local amounts potentially higher across the lower Suwannee
Valley. This could result in some localized flash flooding. There will
be a very sharp cutoff in the higher rainfall amounts on the
northwestern side of the Milton so any subtle shifts in track could
bring higher, or lower, amounts of rainfall to those who reside along
the current gradient of heavy rain. This gradient, which has moved
southeast with this advisory, now stretches from Steinhatchee
northeast through Lake City, Florida.
Tornadoes and storm surge are currently not a concern with the
forecast track of Milton. However, storm surge will be highly track
dependent. Any shifts in the track northward may bring a storm surge
threat into the some portions of the Apalachee Bay. With strong
easterly flow ahead of the storm, there will at least be some
potential for minor coastal flooding under 3 feet, mostly along any
beaches with an east facing aspect. These would likely be beaches from
Alligator Point to St. Marks.
Dangerous marine conditions are also expected with building waves and
strengthening winds beginning Wednesday and persisting into Thursday
afternoon or evening. This will result in high surf and deadly rip
currents along all area beaches for much of the upcoming week.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Some bridges, causeways, and
access routes might become impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to impacts
across the coast of the Apalachee Bay extending westwards towards the
Indian Pass.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across the Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in
this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential
impacts include:
- Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt some evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries could rapidly overflow their banks in
some places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
stressed.
- Flood waters can enter several structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time
across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern
Alabama and southwestern Georgia.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
Tropical Storm Warning issued October 7 at 5:03PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Keaton Beach
- Steinhatchee
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property should now be
underway. Prepare for significant wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Localized storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 1-3 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Wednesday afternoon until early Thursday
morning
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
surge flooding greater than 1 foot above ground
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for storm surge flooding greater than 1 foot
above ground.
- PREPARE: Efforts should now be underway to prepare for
storm surge flooding, especially in low-lying vulnerable
areas.
- ACT: Take actions to protect life and property. Prepare to
leave if evacuation orders are given for your area.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become
overspread with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous
in places where surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes,
mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks,
boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from
moorings.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has decreased from the previous
assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Local Weather Conditions and Forecasts: NWS Tallahassee
- https://www.weather.gov/tallahassee
- Information from the Florida Division of Emergency Management
- https://www.floridadisaster.org
- Information from Taylor County Emergency Management
- http://www.taylorcountyem.com
Tropical Storm Warning issued October 7 at 5:11PM EDT by NWS Tallahassee FL
* WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and
seas 10 to 15 ft.
* WHERE...Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm, Coastal waters from Mexico
Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM, Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm, Coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM,
Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM
and Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
60 NM.
* WHEN...Tropical Storm force winds possible from Wednesday
afternoon until Thursday afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which
could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.