High Tide Flooding Outlook: October 2026
Two spring-tide windows shape October, and the second is the one to watch: a perigean full moon on the 26th, with the Moon at its closest to Earth. Every one of the forty-three harbors on the list floods somewhere between the 24th and the 31st — only about half also flood around the new moon on the 10th.
National Summary
43 harbors have an elevated chance of high tide flooding in October 2026.
- Northeast7 harbors
- Mid-Atlantic10 harbors
- Southeast8 harbors
- Gulf Coast8 harbors
- West Coast6 harbors
- Hawaii4 harbors
Astronomical Factors
- Oct 10 — New moon
- Oct 26 — Full moon
Northeast 7 Harbors
Low lying areas may flood, however high tides alone will likely not cause a significant impact on the coast in most areas unless accompanied by a storm or strong winds. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Kings Point, NY | 1.96 ft0.60 m2.32 ft0.71 m5.87 ft1.79 m22.64 ft6.90 m | Elevated RiskOct 27–28 (peak 45%)Moderate RiskOct 9–10, 25–26, 29 (20%–32.5%)Low RiskOct 1, 8, 11–12, 24, 30 (6.4%–16%) |
| Boston, MA | 2.05 ft0.62 m2.49 ft0.76 m7.12 ft2.17 m15.85 ft4.83 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–29 (peak 34.2%)Low RiskOct 26, 30 (6.5%–8%) |
| Bridgeport, CT | 1.93 ft0.59 m2.27 ft0.69 m5.63 ft1.72 m11.23 ft3.42 m | Low RiskOct 9–11, 25–29 (peak 19.9%) |
| Portland, ME | 2.04 ft0.62 m2.47 ft0.75 m7.00 ft2.13 m20.50 ft6.25 m | Low RiskOct 27–29 (peak 19.5%) |
| Bar Harbor, ME | 2.10 ft0.64 m2.52 ft0.77 m7.80 ft2.38 m16.94 ft5.16 m | Low RiskOct 26–29 (peak 19%) |
| Newport, RI | 1.79 ft0.55 m2.04 ft0.62 m3.91 ft1.19 m7.54 ft2.30 m | Low RiskOct 10–11, 26–28 (peak 11.2%) |
| Providence, RI | 1.83 ft0.56 m2.08 ft0.63 m4.43 ft1.35 m10.16 ft3.10 m | Low RiskOct 27–28 (peak 10.5%) |
Mid-Atlantic 10 Harbors
Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Cape May Canal, NJ | 1.86 ft0.57 m2.29 ft0.70 m4.73 ft1.44 m9.72 ft2.96 m | Moderate RiskOct 26–29 (peak 31.8%)Low RiskOct 1–2, 9–13, 25, 30–31 (5.4%–13.8%) |
| Atlantic City, NJ | 1.82 ft0.56 m2.24 ft0.68 m4.21 ft1.28 m11.38 ft3.47 m | Moderate RiskOct 26–29 (peak 31.5%)Low RiskOct 1–2, 9–13, 25, 30–31 (6.1%–15.5%) |
| Sandy Hook, NJ | 1.85 ft0.56 m2.18 ft0.67 m4.50 ft1.37 m9.59 ft2.92 m | Moderate RiskOct 26–28 (peak 30.3%)Low RiskOct 1, 9–12, 25, 29–30 (5.1%–13.6%) |
| New York (The Battery), NY | 1.84 ft0.56 m2.17 ft0.66 m4.33 ft1.32 m10.19 ft3.10 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–28 (peak 28.5%)Low RiskOct 1, 9–12, 25–26, 29–30 (5.3%–18.8%) |
| Wachapreague, VA | 1.85 ft0.56 m2.17 ft0.66 m4.06 ft1.24 m8.65 ft2.63 m | Moderate RiskOct 26–29 (peak 28.1%)Low RiskOct 1–14, 24–25, 30–31 (5.3%–19.3%) |
| Lewes, Breakwater Harbor, DE | 1.83 ft0.56 m2.25 ft0.69 m4.25 ft1.29 m9.26 ft2.82 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–29 (peak 27.4%)Low RiskOct 1–3, 9–13, 25–26, 30–31 (5.6%–19.5%) |
| Norfolk, VA | 1.75 ft0.53 m1.96 ft0.60 m3.16 ft0.96 m8.89 ft2.71 m | Moderate RiskOct 10–11, 26–29 (peak 26.8%)Low RiskOct 1–9, 12–15, 23–25, 30–31 (6.3%–19.5%) |
| Kiptopeke, VA | 1.76 ft0.54 m1.98 ft0.60 m3.27 ft1.00 m8.32 ft2.54 m | Moderate RiskOct 27 (peak 20.2%)Low RiskOct 1–2, 8–13, 24–26, 28–30 (5.4%–18.5%) |
| Lewisetta, VA | 1.70 ft0.52 m1.84 ft0.56 m2.45 ft0.75 m7.98 ft2.43 m | Low RiskOct 1–31 (peak 18.6%) |
| Windmill Point, VA | 1.75 ft0.53 m1.88 ft0.57 m2.44 ft0.74 m5.35 ft1.63 m | Low RiskOct 1–16, 23–31 (peak 16%) |
Southeast 8 Harbors
Some locations along the Southeast coast will have their highest tides of the year. Some stations along the Southeast coast are predicted to exceed the high tide flooding threshold based on tides alone. Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Trident Pier, Cape Canaveral, FL | 1.76 ft0.54 m2.11 ft0.64 m3.81 ft1.16 m23.69 ft7.22 m | Elevated RiskOct 26–29 (peak 59.7%)Moderate RiskOct 30 (32%–32%)Low RiskOct 1–3, 9–13, 24–25, 31 (5.9%–19%) |
| Fort Pulaski, GA | 1.94 ft0.59 m2.31 ft0.70 m5.62 ft1.71 m12.94 ft3.94 m | Elevated RiskOct 27–28 (peak 44.6%)Moderate RiskOct 26, 29 (26%–26.5%)Low RiskOct 1, 9–12, 25, 30 (5.4%–12.7%) |
| Duck, NC | 1.79 ft0.55 m2.11 ft0.64 m3.71 ft1.13 m24.06 ft7.33 m | Moderate RiskOct 26–29 (peak 34.4%)Low RiskOct 1–3, 6–14, 24–25, 30–31 (5%–18.6%) |
| Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), SC | 1.86 ft0.57 m2.25 ft0.69 m4.75 ft1.45 m36.76 ft11.20 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–28 (peak 24%)Low RiskOct 26, 29 (14.2%–16%) |
| Mayport Naval Station, St Johns R, FL | 1.83 ft0.56 m2.10 ft0.64 m4.32 ft1.32 m15.86 ft4.83 m | Low RiskOct 10, 26–29 (peak 19.8%) |
| Charleston, SC | 1.87 ft0.57 m2.23 ft0.68 m4.71 ft1.44 m10.40 ft3.17 m | Low RiskOct 26–29 (peak 18.7%) |
| Fernandina Beach, FL | 1.90 ft0.58 m2.25 ft0.69 m5.17 ft1.57 m10.16 ft3.10 m | Low RiskOct 11, 26–30 (peak 18.3%) |
| Beaufort, NC | 1.78 ft0.54 m2.07 ft0.63 m3.61 ft1.10 m7.16 ft2.18 m | Low RiskOct 26–29 (peak 13.8%) |
Gulf Coast 8 Harbors
In many locations of the Gulf Coast, the tidal range is relatively small compared to other regions of the U.S. so they will not be as significantly impacted by a perigean spring tide.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Eagle Point, Galveston Bay, TX | 1.62 ft0.49 m1.66 ft0.51 m2.14 ft0.65 m7.01 ft2.14 m | Elevated RiskOct 26–27 (peak 43.6%)Moderate RiskOct 1–6, 9–20, 24–25, 28–31 (20.1%–38.9%)Low RiskOct 7–8, 21–23 (15.4%–19.8%) |
| Galveston Pier 21, TX | 1.70 ft0.52 m1.78 ft0.54 m2.28 ft0.69 m7.49 ft2.28 m | Moderate RiskOct 1, 28–29 (peak 24.1%)Low RiskOct 2–20, 24–27, 30–31 (5.2%–18.5%) |
| Bay Saint Louis, MS | 1.71 ft0.52 m1.85 ft0.56 m2.60 ft0.79 m5.86 ft1.79 m | Moderate RiskOct 2 (peak 20.1%)Low RiskOct 1, 3–5, 11–17, 26–31 (6.1%–18.5%) |
| Dauphin Island, AL | 1.68 ft0.51 m1.70 ft0.52 m2.33 ft0.71 m5.77 ft1.76 m | Low RiskOct 1–5, 12–16, 26–31 (peak 19.1%) |
| Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, TX | 1.76 ft0.54 m1.83 ft0.56 m2.36 ft0.72 m8.22 ft2.50 m | Low RiskOct 1–6, 10–20, 25–31 (peak 14.1%) |
| Pensacola, FL | 1.69 ft0.52 m1.72 ft0.52 m2.33 ft0.71 m11.37 ft3.47 m | Low RiskOct 1–5, 13, 27–31 (peak 12.4%) |
| Cedar Key, FL | 1.79 ft0.55 m2.13 ft0.65 m3.55 ft1.08 m7.40 ft2.25 m | Low RiskOct 1–2, 27–30 (peak 11.3%) |
| Port Isabel, TX | 2.06 ft0.63 m2.12 ft0.65 m2.62 ft0.80 m7.29 ft2.22 m | Low RiskOct 28–30 (peak 6%) |
West Coast 6 Harbors
Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| North Spit, Humboldt Bay, CA | 1.92 ft0.58 m2.63 ft0.80 m5.07 ft1.55 m23.32 ft7.11 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–28 (peak 32.3%)Low RiskOct 26, 29 (8.8%–12.5%) |
| San Diego, CA | 1.87 ft0.57 m2.61 ft0.80 m4.65 ft1.42 m11.38 ft3.47 m | Low RiskOct 27 (peak 18.3%) |
| Toke Point, Willapa Bay, WA | 2.00 ft0.61 m2.74 ft0.83 m6.14 ft1.87 m15.44 ft4.71 m | Low RiskOct 26–29 (peak 16.2%) |
| Newport Harbor, Yaquina River, OR | 1.98 ft0.60 m2.67 ft0.81 m5.86 ft1.79 m14.89 ft4.54 m | Low RiskOct 27–28 (peak 13.5%) |
| Port Angeles, WA | 1.92 ft0.59 m2.47 ft0.75 m4.74 ft1.45 m39.30 ft11.98 m | Low RiskOct 28 (peak 5.4%) |
| Charleston, OR | 1.95 ft0.59 m2.61 ft0.80 m5.49 ft1.67 m13.33 ft4.06 m | Low RiskOct 27 (peak 5%) |
Hawaii 4 Harbors
Some stations in the Pacific Islands are predicted to exceed the high tide flooding threshold based on tides alone. Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI | 1.00 ft0.30 m1.43 ft0.44 m2.25 ft0.69 m7.32 ft2.23 m | Elevated RiskOct 27–28 (peak 58.6%)Moderate RiskOct 26, 29 (23.7%–27.9%) |
| Kawaihae, HI | 1.00 ft0.30 m1.50 ft0.46 m2.19 ft0.67 m5.73 ft1.75 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–29 (peak 39.8%)Low RiskOct 26, 30 (5.8%–13.5%) |
| Kahului, HI | 1.00 ft0.30 m1.35 ft0.41 m2.14 ft0.65 m5.66 ft1.73 m | Low RiskOct 27–28 (peak 13.2%) |
| Nawiliwili, HI | 1.00 ft0.30 m1.40 ft0.43 m2.00 ft0.61 m5.11 ft1.56 m | Low RiskOct 27–28 (peak 10.3%) |
Note: A harbor’s absence from this list does not mean flooding is impossible. It means NOAA either has no sufficiently validated model for that location, or the local hydrodynamics make a prediction unreliable. NOAA does not currently model any station in Alaska. Real-time weather can cause flooding at any coastal location regardless of this outlook — within five days, refer to the National Weather Service.
Where the risk is this month
Pin colour shows each harbor’s highest flood likelihood for the month. Select a pin for its dates and threshold.
National Summary
34 harbors have an elevated chance of high tide flooding in October 2026.
- Northeast4 harbors
- Mid-Atlantic10 harbors
- Southeast8 harbors
- Gulf Coast3 harbors
- West Coast6 harbors
- Hawaii3 harbors
Astronomical Factors
- Oct 10 — New moon
- Oct 26 — Full moon
Northeast 4 Harbors
Low lying areas may flood, however high tides alone will likely not cause a significant impact on the coast in most areas unless accompanied by a storm or strong winds. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Bridgeport, CT | 1.60 ft0.49 m1.94 ft0.59 m5.30 ft1.61 m10.90 ft3.32 m | Elevated RiskOct 27–28 (peak 42.1%)Moderate RiskOct 10–11, 25–26, 29 (20.1%–38.1%)Low RiskOct 1, 8–9, 12, 24, 30 (10.1%–19.7%) |
| Kings Point, NY | 2.20 ft0.67 m2.56 ft0.78 m6.11 ft1.86 m22.89 ft6.98 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–28 (peak 29.5%)Low RiskOct 1, 8–11, 25–26, 29 (5%–19.4%) |
| Boston, MA | 2.23 ft0.68 m2.67 ft0.81 m7.30 ft2.23 m16.03 ft4.88 m | Low RiskOct 27–29 (peak 19.8%) |
| Portland, ME | 2.10 ft0.64 m2.53 ft0.77 m7.06 ft2.15 m20.55 ft6.26 m | Low RiskOct 27–29 (peak 16.2%) |
Mid-Atlantic 10 Harbors
Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Cape May Canal, NJ | 1.25 ft0.38 m1.69 ft0.52 m4.13 ft1.26 m9.12 ft2.78 m | High RiskOct 26–29 (peak 74.2%)Elevated RiskOct 1, 10–12, 25, 30 (43.9%–51.1%)Moderate RiskOct 2–9, 13, 24, 31 (20.1%–37.4%)Low RiskOct 14–16, 22–23 (5.1%–19.3%) |
| Atlantic City, NJ | 1.40 ft0.43 m1.81 ft0.55 m3.79 ft1.15 m10.96 ft3.34 m | High RiskOct 27–28 (peak 63.4%)Elevated RiskOct 26, 29–30 (42.2%–57.2%)Moderate RiskOct 1–2, 9–13, 25, 31 (23.4%–34.6%)Low RiskOct 3–8, 14–15, 23–24 (5.1%–19%) |
| Sandy Hook, NJ | 1.47 ft0.45 m1.80 ft0.55 m4.12 ft1.26 m9.21 ft2.81 m | High RiskOct 27 (peak 60%)Elevated RiskOct 26, 28 (51.2%–53.5%)Moderate RiskOct 9–12, 25, 29 (24.1%–37.7%)Low RiskOct 1–4, 6–8, 13–14, 24, 30–31 (5.1%–19.2%) |
| Lewes, Breakwater Harbor, DE | 1.35 ft0.41 m1.77 ft0.54 m3.77 ft1.15 m8.78 ft2.68 m | Elevated RiskOct 26–30 (peak 59.7%)Moderate RiskOct 1–3, 7–13, 25, 31 (21.5%–39.2%)Low RiskOct 4–6, 14–16, 23–24 (6.4%–19.9%) |
| Lewisetta, VA | 1.50 ft0.46 m1.64 ft0.50 m2.24 ft0.68 m7.77 ft2.37 m | Moderate RiskOct 1–14, 24–29 (peak 33.9%)Low RiskOct 15–23, 30–31 (12.4%–19%) |
| Kiptopeke, VA | 1.56 ft0.48 m1.79 ft0.55 m3.08 ft0.94 m8.13 ft2.48 m | Moderate RiskOct 1, 10–11, 25–29 (peak 32.3%)Low RiskOct 2–9, 12–15, 23–24, 30–31 (5.5%–19.6%) |
| Norfolk, VA | 1.75 ft0.53 m1.95 ft0.59 m3.15 ft0.96 m8.88 ft2.71 m | Moderate RiskOct 10–11, 26–29 (peak 26.8%)Low RiskOct 1–9, 12–15, 23–25, 30–31 (6.6%–19.5%) |
| Windmill Point, VA | 1.66 ft0.51 m1.79 ft0.55 m2.35 ft0.72 m5.26 ft1.60 m | Moderate RiskOct 1, 10–11 (peak 20.9%)Low RiskOct 2–9, 12–31 (5%–19.8%) |
| Wachapreague, VA | 2.02 ft0.62 m2.34 ft0.71 m4.24 ft1.29 m8.82 ft2.69 m | Low RiskOct 1–2, 8–13, 25–30 (peak 19.4%) |
| New York (The Battery), NY | 2.15 ft0.65 m2.47 ft0.75 m4.63 ft1.41 m10.49 ft3.20 m | Low RiskOct 26–28 (peak 11.6%) |
Southeast 8 Harbors
Some locations along the Southeast coast will have their highest tides of the year. Some stations along the Southeast coast are predicted to exceed the high tide flooding threshold based on tides alone. Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Charleston, SC | 1.24 ft0.38 m1.59 ft0.49 m4.08 ft1.24 m9.77 ft2.98 m | High RiskOct 26–29 (peak 78.5%)Elevated RiskOct 10–11, 30 (45.2%–49.2%)Moderate RiskOct 1–2, 7–9, 12, 25, 31 (22.1%–39.5%)Low RiskOct 3–6, 13–14, 24 (9.4%–19%) |
| Myrtle Beach (Springmaid Pier), SC | 1.40 ft0.43 m1.79 ft0.55 m4.29 ft1.31 m36.29 ft11.06 m | High RiskOct 27–28 (peak 66.1%)Elevated RiskOct 26, 29 (53.6%–56.7%)Moderate RiskOct 10–12, 25, 30 (25%–29.4%)Low RiskOct 1–9, 13, 24, 31 (5.1%–19%) |
| Trident Pier, Cape Canaveral, FL | 1.76 ft0.54 m2.11 ft0.64 m3.81 ft1.16 m23.69 ft7.22 m | Elevated RiskOct 26–29 (peak 59.7%)Moderate RiskOct 30 (32%–32%)Low RiskOct 1–3, 9–13, 24–25, 31 (5.9%–19%) |
| Beaufort, NC | 1.46 ft0.45 m1.75 ft0.53 m3.29 ft1.00 m6.84 ft2.08 m | Elevated RiskOct 27–28 (peak 44.5%)Moderate RiskOct 1, 10–11, 26, 29–30 (21.1%–33.7%)Low RiskOct 2–4, 7–9, 12–14, 24–25, 31 (5.2%–16.3%) |
| Fort Pulaski, GA | 2.00 ft0.61 m2.37 ft0.72 m5.68 ft1.73 m13.00 ft3.96 m | Elevated RiskOct 27 (peak 40%)Moderate RiskOct 26, 28–29 (21.8%–38.4%)Low RiskOct 9–12, 25, 30 (5.1%–9.7%) |
| Duck, NC | 1.81 ft0.55 m2.13 ft0.65 m3.73 ft1.14 m24.08 ft7.34 m | Moderate RiskOct 26–29 (peak 33.3%)Low RiskOct 1–3, 8–14, 24–25, 30–31 (5.2%–17.4%) |
| Mayport Naval Station, St Johns R, FL | 1.79 ft0.55 m2.06 ft0.63 m4.28 ft1.30 m15.83 ft4.82 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–28 (peak 22.4%)Low RiskOct 10–11, 26, 29 (5.7%–15.1%) |
| Fernandina Beach, FL | 2.00 ft0.61 m2.35 ft0.72 m5.27 ft1.60 m10.26 ft3.13 m | Low RiskOct 26–29 (peak 12.8%) |
Gulf Coast 3 Harbors
In many locations of the Gulf Coast, the tidal range is relatively small compared to other regions of the U.S. so they will not be as significantly impacted by a perigean spring tide.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Port Isabel, TX | 1.13 ft0.34 m1.18 ft0.36 m1.69 ft0.51 m6.35 ft1.94 m | Extreme RiskOct 1–4, 13–16, 26–31 (peak 95.1%)High RiskOct 5–6, 10–12, 17–19, 25 (62.7%–77.8%)Elevated RiskOct 7–9, 20–21, 24 (43.6%–54.3%)Moderate RiskOct 22–23 (36.9%–38.1%) |
| Bay Saint Louis, MS | 1.46 ft0.45 m1.60 ft0.49 m2.35 ft0.72 m5.61 ft1.71 m | Moderate RiskOct 1–4, 13–15, 27–31 (peak 36.6%)Low RiskOct 5–6, 10–12, 16–19, 25–26 (7.5%–19.8%) |
| Naples, FL | 1.50 ft0.46 m1.75 ft0.53 m2.72 ft0.83 m6.51 ft1.98 m | Low RiskOct 27–29 (peak 10.6%) |
West Coast 6 Harbors
Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles, CA | 1.50 ft0.46 m2.24 ft0.68 m4.16 ft1.27 m10.82 ft3.30 m | Extreme RiskOct 27 (peak 83.7%)Elevated RiskOct 28 (48.3%–48.3%)Moderate RiskOct 26 (37.3%–37.3%)Low RiskOct 29 (5.1%–5.1%) |
| Santa Monica, CA | 1.60 ft0.49 m2.34 ft0.71 m4.24 ft1.29 m9.47 ft2.89 m | Elevated RiskOct 27 (peak 59.9%)Moderate RiskOct 28 (28.1%–28.1%)Low RiskOct 26 (9.5%–9.5%) |
| San Diego, CA | 1.80 ft0.55 m2.54 ft0.77 m4.58 ft1.40 m11.32 ft3.45 m | Moderate RiskOct 27 (peak 35.2%)Low RiskOct 26, 28 (6%–6.2%) |
| North Spit, Humboldt Bay, CA | 1.90 ft0.58 m2.61 ft0.80 m5.06 ft1.54 m23.30 ft7.10 m | Moderate RiskOct 27–28 (peak 34.8%)Low RiskOct 26, 29 (9.9%–14%) |
| La Jolla, CA | 1.70 ft0.52 m2.43 ft0.74 m4.30 ft1.31 m11.39 ft3.47 m | Low RiskOct 27–28 (peak 15.7%) |
| Toke Point, Willapa Bay, WA | 2.10 ft0.64 m2.84 ft0.87 m6.24 ft1.90 m15.54 ft4.74 m | Low RiskOct 26–28 (peak 12.4%) |
Hawaii 3 Harbors
Some stations in the Pacific Islands are predicted to exceed the high tide flooding threshold based on tides alone. Minor tidal flooding along the coast will occur, particularly in low lying areas. If a storm occurs at this time, increased levels of tidal flooding and coastal erosion may occur. Lower than normal low tides will also occur.
| Harbor | Threshold | Flooding Likelihoods & Dates |
|---|---|---|
| Hilo, Hilo Bay, Kuhio Bay, HI | 0.90 ft0.27 m1.33 ft0.41 m2.15 ft0.66 m7.22 ft2.20 m | Extreme RiskOct 27–28 (peak 84.7%)Elevated RiskOct 26, 29 (53.6%–58.7%)Low RiskOct 12, 25, 30 (6.3%–13.1%) |
| Kahului, HI | 0.80 ft0.24 m1.16 ft0.35 m1.94 ft0.59 m5.47 ft1.67 m | High RiskOct 27–28 (peak 78.2%)Elevated RiskOct 26 (49.3%–49.3%)Moderate RiskOct 29 (36.8%–36.8%)Low RiskOct 25 (5.3%–5.3%) |
| Honolulu, HI | 0.70 ft0.21 m1.16 ft0.35 m1.78 ft0.54 m6.41 ft1.95 m | High RiskOct 27–28 (peak 70.6%)Elevated RiskOct 29 (56.2%–56.2%)Moderate RiskOct 26, 30 (26.4%–35.1%)Low RiskOct 31 (6%–6%) |
Note: A harbor’s absence from this list does not mean flooding is impossible. It means NOAA either has no sufficiently validated model for that location, or the local hydrodynamics make a prediction unreliable. NOAA does not currently model any station in Alaska. Real-time weather can cause flooding at any coastal location regardless of this outlook — within five days, refer to the National Weather Service.
About this data
- Source
- NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), Monthly High Tide Flooding Outlook
- API
- Derived Products API (DPAPI), Daily Likelihoods endpoint
- Threshold
- NOS minor and NWS minor — both included
- Datum
- MHHW, MHW, MSL, STND — all included
- Units
- English (feet) and metric (metres) — both included
- Model run
- September 9, 2026
- Includes
- Harbors with at least one day at or above 5% flood likelihood
Flood likelihoods come from a probabilistic model combining tide predictions, sea level rise trends and seasonal changes in coastal sea level. The model does not account for real-time weather.
